You Can't Know How You Make Decisions (But You Can Be Aware)

Date: November 17, 2025

Takeaways: Decision-making frameworks don't work because they ignore the most important variable: you. Your mood, energy, confidence, and circumstances dramatically influence your decisions without you realizing it. You can't know how you make decisions. But you can become aware of what influences them. That awareness is what improves your decision-making.

Table of Contents

• The Myth of Objective Decision-Making

• What Actually Influences Your Decisions

• The Same Person, Same Situation, Different Days

• Why Experience Matters (And Why It Sometimes Doesn't)

• Building Awareness of Your Own Patterns

• What Improves Decision-Making (Spoiler: It's Not Frameworks)

• Frequently Asked Questions

The Myth of Objective Decision-Making

There's a popular belief that good decision-making comes from frameworks.

Use RAPID. Use Eisenhower Matrix. Use frameworks and you'll make good decisions.

It's comforting. It feels scientific. It implies decisions are objective.

But it's wrong.

Frameworks are useful for organizing thinking. But they don't change the fundamental truth:

You are the variable in every decision you make.

And you're not objective. You're influenced by hundreds of things you don't realize.

What Actually Influences Your Decisions

Here are some things that influence your decisions today:

Your Mood

• Stressed vs. calm

• Confident vs. anxious

• Energized vs. depressed

• Excited vs. bored

Your Energy Level

• Well-rested vs. sleep-deprived

• Fed vs. hungry

• Caffeine-fueled vs. crashed

• Fresh vs. exhausted after a long week

Your Confidence

• In this domain (expert vs. uncertain)

• In yourself today (self-assured vs. doubting)

• After a recent success (overconfident) vs. after a failure (risk-averse)

External Pressure

• Deadline stress (rushing decisions vs. time to think)

• Budget cuts (conservative decisions vs. investing decisions)

• Competition moving (defensive vs. offensive)

• Recent wins (ambitious) vs. recent losses (cautious)

Relationships

• Who's in the room

• Who's paying attention

• Who you want to impress

• Who you want to avoid disappointing

Your Recent Experiences

• Just hired someone who didn't work out (hiring cautiously)

• Just promoted someone who failed (promoting cautiously)

• Just tried approach X and it worked (overconfident X will work again)

• Just tried approach Y and it failed (avoiding Y unnecessarily)

Physical Factors

• Time of day (morning clarity vs. afternoon fog)

• What you ate

• How much you exercised

• Your health that day

Personal Context

• Something happening in your personal life (distracted, stressed)

• How you're feeling about your job (engaged vs. burnt out)

• Your relationship status

• Your stress level outside work

All of these influence your decisions.

And here's the thing: You don't realize how much they influence you.

The Same Person, Same Situation, Different Decisions

Take a concrete example.

Monday morning:

You're well-rested. You feel good. You're in a calm mood. You've recently had a win on a similar decision.

Your team proposes an experiment. You think: "Yes, let's try it. The risk is manageable. I'm confident in the approach."

Decision: Move forward.

Friday afternoon (same week):

You're exhausted from a long week. Your energy is crashed. You've had two meetings and a difficult conversation. You're hungry.

Your team proposes the exact same experiment.

You think: "This feels risky. I'm not sure about it. Let's wait and analyze more."

Decision: Wait.

Same person. Same situation. Different decisions.

Why?

Because YOU changed. Your mood, energy, confidence, and context all changed.

You made different decisions because you were different.

But you probably don't realize that's why.

You'd probably rationalize: "Friday's decision was more careful" or "Monday's decision was bolder."

Actually, they were just different versions of you.

Why You Can't Predict Your Own Decisions

Here's something uncomfortable:

You can't predict what decision you'll make in any given situation because you don't know what state you'll be in when the situation arrives.

You think: "I have a clear criteria for this. I'll always decide this way."

But then the situation arrives when you're in a different state. And you decide differently.

Then you're confused: "Wait, I thought I decided this?"

You're not being inconsistent. You're just influenced by things you're not aware of.

Why Experience Matters (And Why It Sometimes Doesn't)

Common belief: Senior people make better decisions because they're smarter.

Reality: Senior people make better decisions because they've made more decisions and learned patterns.

After making 100 decisions, you notice:

"I make better decisions when I'm rested. Worse when I'm exhausted."

"I'm overconfident in technical decisions after a win. I should get more input."

"I'm too cautious in hiring after a bad hire."

"I make better strategic decisions in the morning than afternoon."

"I'm risk-averse when stressed. I should slow down."

Experience teaches you your own patterns.

But here's the catch: junior people can be more self-aware than senior people.

A junior person who notices: "I'm not confident in this area. I should get more input," makes better decisions than a senior person who thinks: "I've been doing this for 10 years, I'm probably right" (even if they're not).

Self-awareness matters more than experience.

Experience just gives you more opportunities to build self-awareness.

Why Some Senior People Make Terrible Decisions

You've probably noticed: some senior people are bad decision-makers.

Why?

• Usually not because they lack intelligence or experience. Often because they lack self-awareness.

• They don't realize how their mood, confidence, or recent experiences influence them.

• They think: "I'm senior, I know better."

• They don't notice: "I'm overconfident today because I just had a win."

• They don't realize: "I'm being risk-averse because of recent failures."

• They make decisions from a place of unconscious influence, thinking they're being objective.

Lack of self-awareness kills decision quality.

Why Some Junior People Make Great Decisions

Conversely, some junior people make excellent decisions despite limited experience.

Why?

• Usually because they're self-aware. They know:

• "I don't have experience in this. I should get input."

• "I'm nervous about this decision. Let me slow down and think."

• "I'm excited about this. I might be overconfident. Let me stress-test it."

• They make decisions from awareness of their own limitations.

• That leads to good decisions.

Self-awareness compensates for inexperience.

Building Awareness of Your Own Patterns

If you can't know HOW you make decisions, what can you do?

Build awareness of what influences them.

Step 1: Track Your Decisions

Write down important decisions you make.

• What was the decision?

• When did you make it?

• What was your mood/energy/confidence at the time?

• What influenced you?

Example:

• "Decided to delay hiring. I was exhausted and cautious."

• "Decided to pursue aggressive growth. I was excited after a win."

• "Decided to pivot strategy. I was stressed and risk-averse."

You start noticing patterns.

Step 2: Review Outcomes

Six months later, how did the decision work out?

• Did it lead to good results?

• Would a different state of mind have led to a different decision?

• Do I notice a pattern between my state and decision quality?

Step 3: Extract Patterns

After enough decisions and reviews, you notice:

"I make better hiring decisions when I'm calm and have time to think."

"I make worse decisions when I'm stressed and rushing."

"I'm overconfident in areas where I'm strong and it leads to missed risks."

"I'm too cautious after failures."

You're building a map of your own decision-making patterns.

Step 4: Adjust Your Process

Once you know your patterns, you can adjust:

"I know I'm risk-averse after failures. On the next decision, let me deliberately consider bold options."

"I know I make better decisions when rested. Let me not make this big decision at 4pm on Friday."

"I know I'm overconfident in my area of strength. Let me get input from someone skeptical."

You're using self-awareness to improve decisions.

What Actually Improves Decision-Making

Frameworks don't always improve decision-making much.

Training doesn't improve it much.

What improves decision-making:

Self-awareness.

Knowing what influences you. Noticing when you're in a state that leads to bad decisions. Adjusting your process accordingly.

A person who says: "I'm going to use the RAPID framework" might make the same quality decisions as before.

A person who says: "I notice I make worse decisions when I'm stressed, so I'm going to slow down and get more input when I'm stressed" will improve their decision-making.

The difference is awareness, not frameworks.

The Senior Person Trap

Here's something that happens as you get more senior:

You become confident. You've made many decisions. Some worked well.

You start trusting your gut. "I've been doing this for 10 years, I know what I'm doing."

And your gut is often right.

But sometimes it's not. And when it's not, you don't notice because you trust it too much.

You lose self-awareness.

You think: "I'm objective. I'm experienced. I'm right."

But you're influenced by things you don't realize.

The trap of seniority is losing the self-awareness that got you there.

The Beginner's Advantage

Junior people often have an advantage: humility.

"I don't know everything. I should get input."

"I'm not sure about this. Let me think more carefully."

"I'm excited about this idea, but maybe I'm overconfident. Let me stress-test it."

This humility is actually self-awareness. And it leads to good decisions.

As you get more senior, don't lose it.

You're Not the Same Person Every Day

Here's the truth: you're not consistent.

Your mood changes. Your energy changes. Your confidence changes. Your circumstances change.

You're different every day.

The person who makes decisions Monday isn't the same as the person who makes decisions Friday.

You're not being inconsistent. You're just being human.

Good decision-makers accept this.

They notice it. They account for it. They adjust their process based on it.

What Better Decision-Making Actually Looks Like

Better decision-making isn't about being smarter.

It's about being more aware:

• Aware of what state you're in

• Aware of how that state influences you

• Aware of when to trust your gut vs. when to get input

• Aware of your blind spots

• Aware of when you're overconfident

• Aware of when you're too cautious

• Aware of patterns in your own decision-making

With that awareness, you adjust:

• "I'm in a state where I make good decisions. I'll trust myself."

• "I'm in a state where I make bad decisions. I'll slow down and get input."

• "I'm overconfident in this area. I'll specifically look for downsides."

• "I'm too cautious. I'll deliberately consider bolder options."

That's how you improve decision-making.

Not frameworks. Awareness.

Why This Matters for Career Growth

When you're self-aware about your decision-making, you:

1. Make better decisions — You adjust for your state

2. Make more consistent decisions — You know your patterns

3. Learn from decisions — You extract patterns

4. Build reputation — People see you make thoughtful decisions

5. Get promoted — Awareness is the foundation of good decision-making

Self-aware decision-makers outperform others.

Over time, they move faster in their careers.

The Bottom Line

You can't know how you make decisions. But you can be aware of what influences them.

Your mood, energy, confidence, circumstances — they all influence you.

You can't eliminate that influence. But you can become aware of it.

With awareness, you adjust your process.

With adjusted process, you make better decisions.

With better decisions, you grow faster.

That's how you actually improve at decision-making.

Not frameworks. Awareness.

The best decision-makers aren't the smartest. They're the most self-aware about how they influence their own decisions.